INVESTOR WISDOM

Market [2008-2017]

 

Most significant Sensex falls in last 3 decades – Jan’08

 

 

– It was Jan 2008, when the market start cracking, Nifty fell down from 6300 levels to 5200 levels and the fall continued….
– This was worst fall in the history of stock market where I have seen stock falling 60-80% and even 95% of their value in a matter of 12-18 months. The fall was so severe that all damage was done in just 18 months and this is the time I started writing blog.
– This was the lifetime opportunity to accumulate stocks at throw away price.

 

Sensex slips below 9K mark in Oct 2008

 

– Sensex reached 3 years back valuation it means at the level of 2005. Fall which started in Jan 2008 continued till Oct 2008 and Nifty made a low point in Oct 2008. After that there was some rise but again Nifty fell to low level in March 2009, almost 6 months later. But this was the final bottom for Nifty….
– Once again 2008 and 2009 was the time one should have sold everything and bought stocks which were screaming buy during the financial collapse which comes and goes like many such uncertainty.

TRADING HALTED FOR THE DAY – May 2009

 


– Market were oversold and when they got some good news of new govt formation by Congress, market jumped like anything and hit circuit up.
– All those who dare to buy stocks in last 2 years are ready to see their wealth growing and it was just a start, so there was no reason why one should have exited, it was the time to buy more or hold tight.

Market Guru- See Nifty At 10,460 By May 2016: Atul Suri – This statement was given in March 2014 when Nifty crossed 6350 (Nifty touched 6300 in 2010 and 2013 also but failed)

 

 

 

–  When the market started rising in mid 2009, it kept on moving till 2010 wherein it hits 6300 and fell down. Again in 2013 we saw market hitting 6300 and falling back. Finally in 2014, market crossed 6300 and there people started becoming bullish again.
 

Stock Markets Biggest Crash In 7 Years – Aug 2015

 
– From 6300 levels in Mar 2014 to 9000 levels in Mar 2015, it was almost 50% rise in the market in just 12 months so a overheated market must cool down else it will explode.

– Once again in Aug 2015, market fell down……actually we made high in March 2015 lead by IT & Pharma after that IT and Pharma started falling down and lost almost 50% of their value. So the fall in the market started in March 2015 itself and intensity was high by end of the year.

– Nifty fell down to 6900 levels which is fall of 23% from the peak. So, a rise of 50% in 12 months lead to a fall of 23% in next 12 months time. This is how the market dynamic works. It was a golden opportunity to buy stocks. This is the time I was saying that bull market is over, I was wrong in that because I was occupied with a notion that 8 years cycle is panning out and market will fall.

Impact of demonetization (Dec’16) on jobs and the sectors – TeamLease Services on CNBC TV 18

 

– Just after this fall was over by Feb 2016, we saw market rising from 6900 to the 8900 which is again a rise of 28% from the bottom. Here came the demo effect of Modi and Nifty fell down to 8000 levels which is a fall of 10%. Once again this was a golden opportunity to buy. Actually demo effect was man made, hence if we ignore this and see the trend – Nifty has risen from 6900 to present level of 9900 in just 18 months which is 43% rise.

Sensex Hits 32K For The First Time Ever, Nifty Nears 9900 – July 2017

 
–  My gut feeling is Nifty rally might reach 10500 levels with all kind of madness and NSE IPO etc before it goes for correction of 20-25% which is around 8000 levels. 
 
– In terms of time, Nifty making peak of 10,500 and breaking down to 8000 levels is likely to happen in next 6 months time.